Executive scenario planning worksheet
The Fourth Turning Leader
https://thefourthturningleader.com/blog/scenario-planning-for-executive-teams

Decision to prepare:

Scenario and horizon:

Known facts:

Uncertain assumptions:

Early warning:

Decision trigger:

Options and trade-offs:

Leadership commitment:

Decision and execution owners:

First actions:

Rehearsal and review:

Reconsideration criteria:


WORKED EXAMPLE (FICTIONAL)
A critical supplier misses its next delivery

Decision to prepare: Decide when to activate the backup supplier and what to tell affected customers.

Scenario and horizon: The primary supplier misses a committed delivery during the next planning cycle.

Known facts: The company relies on one supplier for a critical component. Record current stock and lead time from verified records.

Uncertain assumptions: The backup supplier can meet quality requirements. Procurement must verify capacity and specifications.

Early warning: Supplier cannot confirm dispatch by the agreed checkpoint.

Decision trigger: Activate the contingency if verified stock cover falls below the team's approved threshold. Set that threshold from actual operating data.

Options and trade-offs: Expedite current order; qualify backup supply; reduce commitments. Compare cost, delivery reliability and customer impact.

Leadership commitment: Communicate a verified delivery risk before accepting a customer promise the team cannot defend.

Decision and execution owners: COO owns the decision. Procurement qualifies backup supply. Account leads contact affected customers.

First actions: Verify stock, request supplier evidence, and prepare a customer update for approval.

Rehearsal and review: Run a tabletop with a second missed shipment. Record gaps, owners and review dates.

Reconsideration criteria: Revise the plan if backup capacity, quality evidence or customer requirements change.