The Fourth Turning, Explained

The Fourth Turning is the crisis phase of the generational cycle proposed by William Strauss and Neil Howe. In their model, a roughly 80- to 100-year cycle ends in about two decades of upheaval, when institutions face breakdown and renewal.

The four turnings are the High, when confidence and institutions are strong after a crisis resolves; the Awakening, a values revolt against that order; the Unraveling, when institutions weaken and trust erodes; and the Crisis, when the old order breaks down and is rebuilt. Together they form one long cycle that historians William Strauss and Neil Howe called the saeculum, about the length of a long human life.

The theory comes from William Strauss and Neil Howe, who introduced it in Generations (1991) and developed it in The Fourth Turning (1997). Howe updated it in his 2023 book The Fourth Turning Is Here. They traced a repeating pattern of four generational eras through roughly five centuries of Anglo-American history.

Neil Howe dates the current Fourth Turning to roughly 2008, with the global financial crisis as its opening catalyst. In The Fourth Turning Is Here (2023) he reaffirms that start and projects the crisis resolving sometime before the mid-2030s. Exact start dates are a matter of interpretation, since a turning is recognized by its conditions rather than by a single day.

In the Strauss-Howe model each turning runs about 20 to 25 years, roughly the length of one generation, so a full cycle of four turnings, which they call a saeculum, spans roughly 80 to 100 years. A Fourth Turning ends when the new order is established and confidence returns, which begins the next High.

Clarify what is verified, name competing obligations, and record who owns the decision and when it will be reviewed. The free Leader Lab crisis rehearsal lets you practice with a fictional bank confidence crisis. The Mode Finder offers a separate reflection on patterns in your choices.

Treat the Fourth Turning as an interpretation of history. The dates are approximate, and its predictions remain uncertain. It cannot tell you whether a particular bank will fail, a conflict will escalate, or a technology will overturn your organization. Decisions still require current evidence, relevant expertise, and people willing to challenge your assumptions.

Yes. The Leader Lab rehearsal opens a fictional bank confidence crisis without an account or payment. You can work through the situation, evidence, options, action and review, and decision brief. Ongoing work with your own saved decisions is part of paid Leader Lab access.