The Fourth Turning, explained.

The authors use these American crises to illustrate their argument. The events are historical; classifying them as repetitions of one cycle is the authors’ interpretation.

American RevolutionLate 18th century

The colonies broke with Britain and built a new constitutional order. The change concerned the source and limits of political authority, as well as independence.

Newburgh, New York · March 15, 1783

Washington at Newburgh

Congress owed his officers money. An anonymous appeal urged them to use the Army’s power to collect. How could Washington stand by his men and still defend civilian rule?

Read the Newburgh passageClose the Newburgh passageFrom Honor Under Pressure

Honor Under Pressure, expanded second edition

Chapter 9 · Washington’s Restraint

By Christopher Myers

Washington led through the American Revolution and the establishment of the constitutional republic. Strauss and Howe place the revolutionary crisis within the American Revolution’s Fourth Turning. The institutional problem examined here is independent of that chronology: how does a leader return authority when people have learned to depend on him?

On March 15, 1783, Washington addressed officers assembled at Newburgh, New York. The danger came from inside the Army: compensation grievances were being used to encourage pressure against the civilian government.

The victory at Yorktown had come in October 1781, but peace and the Army’s future remained unsettled in March 1783. Officers had legitimate grievances over compensation. That grievance did not establish a right to threaten the civilian government.

Anonymous addresses circulating in camp invoked the officers’ suffering and urged action outside the ordinary appeals to Congress. Their threatened alternatives included refusing further service if war continued or refusing to disband if peace arrived. Washington treated the agitation as a danger to the cause the Army had served.

Washington called the March 15 meeting after an earlier anonymous call for officers to assemble. His attendance and address confronted the agitation directly. The intervention joined recognition of the officers’ grievances to a defense of civilian authority.

Washington’s prepared address acknowledged the grievance while urging the officers to reject the anonymous appeal. He argued that the proposed remedy would endanger the country and the Army’s own standing. In the familiar account of the meeting, he then put on spectacles to read a letter and referred to having grown old in service. Samuel Shaw’s account describes the emotion the moment produced.

The scene is memorable because a personal record gave force to an institutional argument. It should not be reduced to a trick of presentation. Washington still had to defend the boundary: the Army’s service did not entitle it to impose its will on civilian government.

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American Civil War1860s

The Union survived and slavery was abolished. Reconstruction exposed the continuing conflict over citizenship, rights, and who could exercise power.

Great Depression and World War II1929–1945

Economic collapse and global war reshaped the federal government’s responsibilities, the economy, and America’s international role.

These episodes had different causes and consequences. Their common feature is a struggle over the rules of public life. Rebuilding institutions did not remove injustice or settle every conflict.

Sources: William Strauss and Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning (1997); Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning Is Here (2023).

Sources: William Strauss and Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning (1997).

Sources: Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning Is Here (2023); Neil Howe on The Art of Manliness, episode 913 (2023).

It can prompt useful questions about history. It should not be treated as a proven forecasting system. Four cautions matter when deciding how much weight to give the theory:

1. 01

   A pattern is not proof of a fixed cycle.

   Identifying crises in the past does not establish that the next one must arrive on schedule. Ask which events do not fit and whether a different choice of dates would change the pattern.

2. 02

   Generations contain very different lives.

   Age, income, race, geography, and shared events can influence attitudes. Pew Research Center explains why generational comparisons need to distinguish those factors and avoid stereotypes. Its guidance concerns generational research broadly; it is not a direct test of the Fourth Turning theory.

3. 03

   The historical scope is limited.

   An account built around Anglo-American history should not automatically be applied to every society. Countries have different institutions, conflicts, and timelines.

4. 04

   The story can encourage fatalism.

   If every alarming headline becomes confirmation, the theory stops being something you can question. Neither war nor renewal should be treated as a permission slip: people remain responsible for the choices they make.

Sources: Pew Research Center: How we plan to report on generations (2023).

The books and interviews explain the authors’ claims. The research guidance helps evaluate generational claims.

1. 01
   William Strauss and Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning (1997)

   The original book develops the four-stage framework and historical argument.

2. 02
   Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning Is Here (2023)

   Howe’s updated argument and forecast. The early-2030s timing is a prediction from this account.

3. 03
   Neil Howe on The Art of Manliness, episode 913 (2023)

   Howe explains the 2008 catalyst, the difference between an event and an era, and possible outcomes.

4. 04
   Strauss and Howe discuss the Civil War anomaly on C-SPAN

   Brian Lamb reads historian Jay Dolan’s objection and asks both authors to respond.

5. 05
   Pew Research Center: How we plan to report on generations (2023)

   Research guidance on age, historical context, and the limits of generational labels.